Ask most founders which market they’d expand into next, and the answer usually comes fast — often the market that feels most familiar, or the one a board member keeps asking about. Fast answers to this question are rarely the right ones.
The obvious market is usually the wrong first test
The market that feels most familiar — because it shares a language, or a founder has visited it, or a competitor is already there — is an intuitive first pick, but familiarity isn’t the same as fit. A market can feel close and still be a poor first test if the buying process, channel structure, or price sensitivity don’t actually match how the product sells today.
The more useful question isn’t “which market do we know best” but “which market would buy this product roughly the way it’s already being sold, with the fewest changes to the model.” That market is sometimes the familiar one. Often it isn’t.
A simple way to compare markets honestly
Three questions do most of the work: how closely does the buying process in this market resemble the one that already works at home; how much of the current product and pricing would need to change to be competitive there; and is there already some proof point — a customer conversation, a partner relationship, an inbound signal — that suggests real demand, rather than just market size on paper.
A market that scores well on all three is a stronger first bet than a larger market that scores well on none of them, even if the larger market looks better in a slide.
Thinking globally means testing locally, first
The companies that build a genuinely global footprint over time almost always start with one market chosen for fit rather than size, prove the model there with real customers, and only then use that proof — not just ambition — to justify the next one. Thinking globally is a sequencing discipline as much as it’s a mindset.
Market Selection Framework
A one-page briefing on comparing candidate markets by fit rather than size, before committing to the first one.
PDF — Coming SoonWeighing a few candidate markets and want a second, more skeptical opinion? Book a Discovery Call →